Permanent and Transitory Dynamics in House Prices and Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence

by Fabio Bagliano and Claudio Morana; CeRP WP n. 81/09 


In this paper a small-scale macroeconomic system is estimated in the framework of a common trends model, in order to explore the dynamic interactions between real house prices, consumption expenditure and output in the US and major European economies. The results point to important differences across countries, with long-run house price effects on consumption only for France, Germany and the US. However, some interactions between house prices and consumption are detected in all countries at shorter horizons. Evidence of international comovements in the common trend component of house price dynamics is also found.